[umichgrad07]

Originally posted by MJ0497

Question. This might be silly but why do people use the system sales+airplay in points like they are equal? Like 100k sales plus 50 mil AI = 150 pts? Isn't that a pretty flawed way to predict the chart? Doesn't Billboard use the formula 55% Airplay, 40% sales and 5% streaming?

yes, billboard uses the 50/45/5 formula for their hot 100 calculations.

people around here use the 50/50 method as a rough estimate. most of the time, it's almost accurate. since we don't know the streaming points for each song, we just use the 50/50 method and guesstimate.

[FAN]

Nobody panic.

Adele is gaining fast on us (like WTF) but look at everyone else in the Top 10. Kelly is still gaining on them.

[stoopidjenna]

Originally posted by MJ0497

Question. This might be silly but why do people use the system sales+airplay in points like they are equal? Like 100k sales plus 50 mil AI = 150 pts? Isn't that a pretty flawed way to predict the chart? Doesn't Billboard use the formula 55% Airplay, 40% sales and 5% streaming?

I don't think we know actually know an exact formula, the ones used for predictions are all estimates, but we know sales and AI are fairly even but with a little more weight given towards AI, and that in really close cases streaming will be the determining factor.

[Bad Wolf]

Give her 2-3 weeks, she'll be #1 on Billboard

[Ammer]

Adele is still FAR behind her. She is gaining but Kelly is still ahead by a good 28%.

[FAN]

Judging by Kworbs system tho, even if she looses some sales, she's still pretty much gaurenteed #2

[FAN]

POP
#22 (=)
+118 Spins
-76 Bullet
+1.026 AI

HAC
#15 (=)
+76 Spins
-43 Bullet
+0.395 AI

KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 36.377 (+ 1.512)

[Addicted]

Originally posted by dhilamilan1899

from KCE
i hope not re-post

maria4hitz wrote: Early sales estimates from Kworb. Last week he predicted 175k and it was 175k exactly

Next week's Hot 100 #1 is between Adele and Kelly. I'm so excited I can't think!!!!!!!!!!!

Early estimates

1. Kelly Clarkson - Stronger: 256614
2. David Guetta & Nicki Minaj - Turn Me On: 196256
3. ADELE - Set Fire to the Rain: 183327
4. Tyga - Rack City: 168355
5. Snoop Dogg & Wiz Khalifa - Young, Wild & Free: 145211
6. Flo Rida - Good Feeling: 134994
7. Rihanna - We Found Love: 123801
8. Jessie J - Domino: 122236
9. Pitbull - International Love: 121117
10. LMFAO - Sexy and I Know It: 116928

Early Hot 100 prediction

SFTTR (183 + 124 = 307)
WDKY (257 + 44 = 301)
WFL (124 + 145 = 269)
GF (135 + 127 = 262)

AI-->01/27/2012 - 36.377 (+1.512)

But wait, if tracking ends sunday, then they expect her to go from 36 AI to 44 AI in only 1-2 days?

[I'mRihannaFan]

Originally posted by gareth_

But wait, if tracking ends sunday, then they expect her to go from 36 AI to 44 AI in only 1-2 days?

Sales ends Sunday, airplay Wednesday

[FAN]

She still has 5 more days of airplay, when she'll be up to at least 40 Mill AI, most likely higher.

[Addicted]

Originally posted by I'mRihannaFan

Sales ends Sunday, airplay Wednesday

ah thanks, billboard is so confusing jeez haha! so basically we need 1.5 updates everyday to hit the estimate

hm I really don't think we've got a chance at #1

but on the upside, if we sell 250k this week, it brings the total to 773,000 so far! THATS HUUUUUGE

[FAN]

iTunes just updated, Kelly is still increasing she's got the Top 10 rapped around her finger

[Addicted]

Originally posted by FAN

iTunes just updated, Kelly is still increasing she's got the Top 10 rapped around her finger

yey! looks like Adele has slowed down too

[Music 2005]

I have a git card...

Do we have a shot at #1? If we do I could spend it on What Doesn't Kill You...

I think next week we will have a better chance though...if What Doesn't Kill You remains high next week.

Another way to help is if we all request What Doesn't Kill You a whole bunch and it's radio increases because of it.

[Music 2005]

This is not impossible!

We can make What Doesn't Kill You go #1! With the Hot 100 being THIS close we have no excuses if this doesn't make it!

I am serious, we are in the era of social networking...we can make this happen.

Problem is...I don't have a facebook or Twitter...but I do plan on telling people to buy it on other websites and other things.

I say you guys try to make What Doesn't Kill You trend...

I am telling you...6K away isn't nearly impossible

[justaflopstan94]

Originally posted by umichgrad07

Kelly Clarkson - "Stronger (I'll Kill You)" [Murda Mix] featuring Ja Rule

it could work

[FAN]

They need to release the remixs on Monday February 20 to iTunes, they usually give you a push. That'll be after Madonna at the Superbowl, and after Adele slays at the Grammys, and it'll add to the longevity, and by then it'd be a lot higher in airplay.

[Chivas]

Originally posted by FAN

They need to release the remixs on Monday February 20 to iTunes, they usually give you a push. That'll be after Madonna at the Superbowl, and after Adele slays at the Grammys, and it'll add to the longevity, and by then it'd be a lot higher in airplay.

You're right. I feel like Adele is going to plummet HARD after Grammy week because so many people will already have the song.

[Music 2005]

Originally posted by Chivas

You're right. I feel like Adele is going to plummet HARD after Grammy week because so many people will already have the song.

Yup, I said back in November that I didn't think SFTTR would hit #1 because so many people already had the song from buying the album. Obviously, I was wrong but really how long can it last?

I think that a big reason as to why Walk Away never went Top 10 is because so many people already had the Breakaway album in the U.S.

The album sales are bound to kill off her single sales eventually...right?

[FAN]

Yeah Adele will be decreasing on Feb 20, Madonna will have been out for a couple weeks, hype will be wearing off. Only issue is if Katy releasing a new single & Rihannas Talk That Talk. Plus that song Somebody That I Used To Know may come for wigs.